The path leading to a final agreement in Northern Ireland was embellished last week with two fundamental changes: the report issued by the Independent Monitory Commission in charge of monitoring the IRA's disarmament process, and the final parade of the Royal Irish Regiment, the British battalion active in Belfast since the 1970s.

Historic opportunity. The independent commission completed its works last week with the decree that the military campaign of the Irish Republican Army (IRA) has come to an end following a ‘radical change’ of its structures and the dismantling of some of them. Basically, in quoting the report, the IRA 'no longer plans to resort to violence and no longer has the capabilities of sustaining a military campaign.' The conclusion is a heralding of significant political developments. Hailed by Prime Minister Blair as a unique opportunity to attain a final agreement, it also received laudatory comments from the British minister for Northern Ireland, who spoke about how Ulster politicians can now ‘truly start on the process of change’. The hope is that in the future the IRA can become a political interlocutor just like Sinn Féin, which takes part in the new Northern Ireland Parliament in charge of appointing an executive branch by November. On the Protestant front, the situation is instead anything but positive since, again according to the commission, criminal and paramilitary activity is still highly widespread both amongst the loyalist radical groups UFF (Ulster Freedom Fighters) and the UVF (Ulster Volunteer Force).
 
Withdrawal commences. The commission was established in 2004 to promote the formation of a stable and inclusive government in a pacified Northern Ireland. Since then, its work has developed through consultations, meetings and interviews with various categories and organisations both in Ulster and in Eire, with political parties, government officials, police, parishes, lawyers, journalists, victims of terrorism and private citizens. On Friday, during a military parade held for the occasion, the countdown for pulling out 3,000 Royal Irish Regiment soldiers commenced. The infantry battalion is the result of the 1992 merger of the Royal Irish Rangers and the Ulster Defence Regiment, two of the formations most highly exposed to terrorism that numbered soldiers operating during the so-called 'Troubles' period, from the 1970s on, and counting 264 victims of the IRA amongst its ranks. Sixty of them were assassinated after they had completed their military careers.
 
The mistrust of the British soldiers. Notwithstanding the IRA today is practically inoperative from a military point of view, the farewell to arms of the soldiers of the Royal Irish Regiment will in any case be a problematic change. There are still fears and mistrust amongst the soldiers, some of whom will become informers of the loyalist paramilitary fighters. Finding an alternative job in Ireland, land of heavy immigration from Eastern Europe, is often very difficult, especially in the small rural towns where the programme that envisages the release of IRA political prisoners may create problems of coexistence. As they are very small, everyone knows each other in the mixed communities (Protestants and Catholics), and they know who – on one or the other side – has killed a relative, a friend or a fellow soldier.