The moment feared so much may have arrived. Monday morning, following the conquest of the center of Buur Hakaba on the part of joint Somali and Ethiopian forces, the Islamic courts have declared a holy war against Ethiopia, accused of having invaded the country and of being the party responsible for Somali instability.

Counteroffensive. In the first counteroffensive of the governmental army after the arrival of the Courts, yesterday contingents of the armed forces sustained by Ethiopian troops  conquered the center of Buur Hakaba, a few kilometers from the city of Baidoa, seat of the institutions of transition. The action, probably aimed at slowing the military pressure of the Courts that for some months have controlled the major part of the south of the country and the capital, Mogadishu, lasted a few hours, seeing that already in late morning the assault troops withdrew—apparently without motive—according to what the local population has reported. The attack has been only an act of demonstration, or have the government and Ethiopia preferred not to go all the way out of fear of a reaction from the Courts?

Holy War. Whatever the motive may be, the move has solidified the front of the Courts, in the last weeks visibly split between a moderate wing and an intransigent one, pushing the gentlemen of Mogadishu to declare a holy war against Ethiopia, present for months in Somali territory in an “officious” manner with some hundreds of soldiers drawn up at Baidoa, under the protection of President Abdullahi Yusuf and his government. The government of Addis Ababa at this time has not made a statement, but the Ethiopian authorities deny that their own troops are present in Somali territory. At the moment it isn’t clear if the jihad will be followed by a true military action, or if it’s only propaganda in order to respond to the attack on Buur Hakaba. But it is undeniable that the military preparations underway predict nothing good.

Kismayo. Beyond the front that could be opened near Baidoa, there is the Juba Valley Alliance’s desire for ransom to take into consideration. The armed alliance withdrew a few days ago from the southern port of Kismayo following an attack of the Courts that with this move, after making themselves masters of a good part of the south of the country, has assured them of control of all the Somali ports except those in the autonomous regions of Puntland. Members of the JVA have taken note that the group is in the process of reorganization, predicting a counteroffensive against the port city. In short, around two thousand people a day flee from the country towards Kenya, in anticipation of a resumption of the clashes—a confirmation that the risk of a resumption of the conflict is always more likely.