Georgian president Mikheil Saakashvili finally got what he wanted: to make Russia lose its patience. Seeing as how the Kremlin hadn’t reacted to any of innumerable military provocations carried out in Abkhazia and South Ossetia, the Georgian territories controlled by Moscow-backed separatists, on last Thursday the pro-US, nationalist leader, nicknamed “Sasha,” decided on a direct attack on Russian national pride: he ordered the arrest in Tbilisi of four Russian secret agents, accusing them of spying. It was the straw that broke the camel’s back.

Russian Embargo. After accusing Georgia of “state terrorism,” Russia suspended diplomatic relations with Tbilisi, called back its diplomats, and expelled Georgian diplomats from Moscow. It also interrupted highway, rail, air, and maritime communications between the two countries.
Russian military bases in Georgia, and all along the border, have been placed on high alert, and soldiers have been ordered to use “lethal force” when necessary. In addition to 2,500 Russian UN peacekeeping forces stationed in Abkhazia and South Ossetia, Moscow has 3500 of its own forces and armored vehicles in two Russian bases still in operation in the former Soviet state. At the same time, the Russian fleet stationed in the Black Sea was mobilized for unspecified exercises just off the Georgian coast.
Georgia responded by mobilizing its armed forces and calling up 100,000 reservists.

Paychecks and Energy. The Russian Duma is also preparing a provision to block money transfers from Russia to Georgia, a measure that would impede the 300,000 Georgians who work in Russia from sending their paychecks home, an important source of income for Georgia, amounting to 4 per cent of GNP. “The Georgian authorities must understand that they cannot bite the hand that feeds them,” declared Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. The pretext that Russia would like to adopt to justify this financial crackdown is the fight against the traffic and recycling of dirty money. Some in Tbilisi think that the Kremlin may go so far as to block gas and electric energy supplies, two resources for which Georgia’s dependence on Russia is almost total. A winter without heat or light would be a harsh blow for the Georgian populace and for Saakashvili’s popularity. Putin already demonstrated to Ukraine that he has few scruples about striking the civilian population to reduce their support for an uncooperative government. With Ukraine’s Yushenko, Putin’s maneuver worked to perfection.

Georgia versus Nato. Behind this crisis lurks the new “Cold War” between the US and Russia over control of the southern Caucasus and the gas and petroleum pipelines in the Caspian Sea basin. At the moment, Washington seems to be holding the better hand, since their September 16 offer to Georgia to become a full member of Nato before the end of 2007. To accelerate the process, the US Senate approved on Saturday (two days after the arrests of the Russian spies) a plan to send Georgia 10 million dollars. Furious at the prospect of finding Nato on their southern border, Russia may be tempted to act sooner rather than later by provoking regime change in Tbilisi.