The 1992 cease-fire between the government of Georgia and the separatists of South Ossetia is in danger of collapse.  After a Georgian military helicopter was shot down at the beginning of September, the first armed confrontations between the militias of South Ossetia and the armed forces of Tblisi began.  There have been four deaths, and the Georgian government has threatened military intervention “to restore order” in the region.  South Ossetia has replied by announcing a referendum on independence for the November 12.

Downed helicopter.  Tension began to escalate on September 3 with the shooting down of a Georgian military helicopter that was carrying Defense Minister Irakli Okruashvili and the deputy chief of staff of the army, Colonel Zaza Gogava.  An anti-aircraft weapon fired by the Ossetia separatists struck the aircraft, but the pilot was able to crashland with no casualties.  The authorities of the self-proclaimed Republic of South Ossetia declared that they were reacting to a violation of their air  space.  A press agent for the Russian Foreign Minister—Moscow has been supporting the Ossetian separatists since the war of 1991-1992—declared that Georgia had sole responsibility for the incident, gbeing guilty of having violated the terms of the cease-fire that prohibits unauthorized military flights over disputed territory.  “Incidents like this cannot go unanswered,” declared the Parliamentary President, Nino Burjanadze.

Skirmishes; first casualties.  The Georgian reply came five days later, on September 8, when Georgian soldiers opened fire on  an outpost of the separatist militia and killed three Ossetians.  A Georgian soldier was also killed in the gunfire.  According to the Tblisi version, the Ossetians were the first to open fire.  “This is no longer a provocation, these are acts of terrorism, thundered Givi Targamadze,  chairman of the defense committee of the Georgian Parliament.  “I am afraid that we will be forced to undertake an anti-crime offensive to restore order in the region.”
    Zurab Nogaideli, the Georgian Prime Minister, declared that “The status quo  in Ossetia has become intolerable for Georgia.  Immediate measures are necessary to resolve the situation.”  But the premier did not make clear whether he intended diplomatic measures or something more risky.  
    Dozens of politicians—from both the majority and the opposition—openly called for military intervention against “these Ossetian criminals, bandits, terrorists.”  

A Referendum on independence.  On September 11, Eduard Kokoity, president of the self-proclaimed Republic of South Ossetia, launched the supreme challenge at the Georgian government by establishing  a referendum for independence from Tlbizi on  November 12.  The proposal was openly endorsed by the Kremlin.  Russian President Vladimir Putin never misses an occasion to reaffirm his support for the principle of self-determination for separatists.  With the Georgians this means supporting the South Ossetians and Abkhazia.  He also supports the Transnistria separatists of Moldova.
    Georgian Foreign Minister Gela Bezhuashvili declared that if this referendum is actually held it will provoke a breakdown in the peace process.  He emphasized “the seriousness  of the fact that Russia, which pushed the peace process, now openly supports this provocation.”

Georgia prepares for war.  The danger that pro-American Georgian nationalist President Mikhail Saakashvili might reopen the armed conflict of 1991-1992 (which resulted in 2000 deaths) is all too real at this point.  A referendum for independence supported by Moscow would be a slap in the face that Tbilisi could not easily ignore. It would provide the occasion for Georgia to avenge the humiliating defeat of fourteen years ago, a rematch that Saakashvili has been preparing for a long time.  Last year he ordered a 140% increase in military spending, the largest increase in the world. Another factor is military cooperation with the United States; for the past two years the American military has been training  the Georgian special forces.  On September 12 a delegation from the Pentagon arrived in Georgia to meet with Defense Minister Okruashvili.  It is hard to imagine that the question of South Ossetia was not a part of this discussion.