After more than two months of truce and negotiations, the government in Pakistan and guerillas in Waziristan have reached an agreement to end hostilities. The “Great Peace Jirga,” composed of Waziri tribal, religious, and military leaders, has announced that the Islamabad government will cease military operations in the region, remove its roadblocks, and free all war prisoners taken during the conflict. In exchange, tribal leaders, ulema, and Waziri militias promise to end attacks against government forces and objectives, close their training camps, halt incursions into Afghanistan, recognize government authority in the region, and to deport all foreign fighters (meaning those of al Qaeda).

4000 dead in two years. If the agreement holds, it will mean the end of a war that began in March, 2004, that has cost the lives of at least 3000 Waziris and 950 government soldiers. Uncounted numbers of civilians have died during reprisals by the Pakistani armed forces (such as the massacre in the bazaar in Wana in September, 2004) or from CIA missile attacks against villages suspected of offering refuge to al Qaeda operatives (such as last winter’s bombings). The war was forced upon Pakistan’s president, Pervez Musharraf, by the United States, which has lost patience with his ambiguous politics, declaring Pakistan a US ally in the war on terrorism as he continues to tolerate Taleban and al Qaeda presence in Waziristan, offering not only refuge but political and logistical support (through religious parties in the Tribal Agencies and radical elements in the military secret services, the ISI).

On Washington’s Orders. To satisfy Washington’s demands, General Musharraf has set himself in opposition to the nation’s fundamentalist religious and military power centers, without whom it is difficult to govern. Dangerous, in fact. Musharraf has received not only harsh criticism – the most common: that he is a bad Muslim who sends the army against his brothers instead of against the American infidels, whose servant he is – but numerous attempts on his life. Because of this, Musharraf has always sought dialogue with the Waziristan Taleban in hopes of bringing an end to the conflict. And now it appears he may have succeeded.

But Can the Taleban be Trusted? The risk he runs is that in the interest of bringing an end to open warfare, he has accepted an agreement that his counterparts will never follow in its details. The Waziri Taleban can halt their attacks against Pakistani forces, but it is hard to believe that they will hand over power, calling an end to the Islamic State of Waziristan they declared last March. It is still harder to believe that they will demobilize the rearguard of the Afghan resistance war, stop recruiting boys from local madrassas and training them for combat, or cease incursions into Afghan territory. Not to mention the slim likelihood that they will banish al Qaeda leaders (reports claim both al Zawahiri and Osama Bin Laden are hidden there). The war in Waziristan may be over for now – certainly good news – but the region may continue as the Taleban’s stronghold and a refuge for al Qaeda. If that turns out to be the case, Washington will be quick to demand armed intervention from Musharraf, who will again be compelled to rain smart missiles onto the villages of Waziri shepherds.