12/21/2005
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For once, good news has come in from the Caucasus. As the drums were rolling
for a new war between the Georgian government and South Ossetia separatists, South
Ossetian leader Eduard Kokoity unexpectedly launched a peace proposal so as to
once and all put an end to a conflict that has been dragging on for 15 years.
Kokoity’s move was welcomed with surprise and satisfaction in Tbilisi because
Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili, determined to re-establish the country’s
territorial integrity, was convinced that there were no more margins of dialogue
with the Southern Ossetians, and was ready to travel down the military path.
A new war was at risk. Just a few days ago in Ossetia Georgia’s special police corps were provokingly
attacking the South Ossetian separatist fighters, who responded by kidnapping
Georgian soldiers and civilians. Kokoity accused Saakashvili of wanting to invade
South Ossetia and promised unflagging resistance up until victory and the proclamation
of the region’s independence. And Abkhazian separatist leader Sergey Bagapsh ensured
Kokoity his military support if Georgia attacked. Demonstrating the fact that
the situation was on the point of exploding was also the mobilization of American
and Russian diplomacy, which entered the arena in an attempt to bring Saakashvili
and Kokoity back to composure.
A three-stage plan, as Tbilisi asked for. As Georgian Prime Minister Zurab Nogaideli commented, Kokoity’s proposal basically
reintroduces the three-stage peace plan that President Saakashvili presented last
year to the United Nations and this year to OSCE. The first stage is demilitarization
of the territory and adoption of measures that would restore confidence between
the parties in order to together guarantee the area’s security. The second stage
is an economic rehabilitation and development plan for the area of conflict. The
third stage consists of the normalisation of political relations between Georgia
and South Ossetia, and hence definition of the region’s final status, which most
probably will be the recognition of strong autonomy within the Georgian state.
According to Kokoity’s proposal, the entire peace process will be supervised by
a working group that should be formed on February 1, 2006 within the sphere of
the Joint Control Commission made up of Georgia, South Ossetia, Russian and the
Russian Republic of North Ossetia.
New hopes for Abkhazia, too. Positive reactions to Kokoity’s proposal came from the Kremlin, too, which certainly
contributed to this positive development. The turning point occurred at the end
of a five-day visit of head negotiator, the Russian Valery Kenyaikin.
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On the brink of a conflict, the South Ossetian separatists put forward a peace plan
For once, good news has come in from the Caucasus. As the drums were rolling
for a new war between the Georgian government and South Ossetia separatists, South
Ossetian leader Eduard Kokoity unexpectedly launched a peace proposal so as to
once and all put an end to a conflict that has been dragging on for 15 years.
Kokoity’s move was welcomed with surprise and satisfaction in Tbilisi because
Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili, determined to re-establish the country’s
territorial integrity, was convinced that there were no more margins of dialogue
with the Southern Ossetians, and was ready to travel down the military path.
The news is doubly good because it has already had a positive repercussion on
the other Georgian separatist conflict, Abkhazia, which would certainly blow up
again together with that of South Ossetia.
A new war was at risk. Just a few days ago in Ossetia Georgia’s special police corps were provokingly
attacking the South Ossetian separatist fighters, who responded by kidnapping
Georgian soldiers and civilians. Kokoity accused Saakashvili of wanting to invade
South Ossetia and promised unflagging resistance up until victory and the proclamation
of the region’s independence. And Abkhazian separatist leader Sergey Bagapsh ensured
Kokoity his military support if Georgia attacked. Demonstrating the fact that
the situation was on the point of exploding was also the mobilization of American
and Russian diplomacy, which entered the arena in an attempt to bring Saakashvili
and Kokoity back to composure. It may have been the Kremlin diplomats’ skill of persuasion, or that of dissuasion
regarding the war arsenal Georgia had built up precisely in view of a conflict
with the South Ossetians, but the fact remains that on Monday Eduard Kokoity unexpectedly
changed course by holding out his hand to Georgia as had never happened in recent
years.
A three-stage plan, as Tbilisi asked for. As Georgian Prime Minister Zurab Nogaideli commented, Kokoity’s proposal basically
reintroduces the three-stage peace plan that President Saakashvili presented last
year to the United Nations and this year to OSCE. The first stage is demilitarization
of the territory and adoption of measures that would restore confidence between
the parties in order to together guarantee the area’s security. The second stage
is an economic rehabilitation and development plan for the area of conflict. The
third stage consists of the normalisation of political relations between Georgia
and South Ossetia, and hence definition of the region’s final status, which most
probably will be the recognition of strong autonomy within the Georgian state.
According to Kokoity’s proposal, the entire peace process will be supervised by
a working group that should be formed on February 1, 2006 within the sphere of
the Joint Control Commission made up of Georgia, South Ossetia, Russian and the
Russian Republic of North Ossetia. New hopes for Abkhazia, too. Positive reactions to Kokoity’s proposal came from the Kremlin, too, which certainly
contributed to this positive development. The turning point occurred at the end
of a five-day visit of head negotiator, the Russian Valery Kenyaikin. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov expressed his satisfaction of the “new
initiative” taken by the South Ossetian side since it meets the Georgian proposals
and fits into the JCC’s negotiation framework. Moscow also hoped that this would
be the occasion for solving the Abkhazia question as well, a hope immediately
welcomed by the Georgian government, which on Wednesday announced President Saakashvili’s
willingness to “meet with Abkhazian separatist leader Sergey Bagapsh at any time
for signing a joint document with him.”
Kokoity’s move might therefore have cleared up not only the South Ossetian conflict
that in 1990-92 led to 1,000 deaths and 100,000 refugees, but also the more delicate
Abkhazian conflict, which in 1993 caused 10,000 deaths and 250,000 refugees. Two
‘frozen’ wars always on the brink of exploding again, but that perhaps now have
once and for all been defused.
Enrico Piovesana
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