One would have to be a diehard and rather short-sighted pacifist not to allow oneself to even suspect that someone involved with Emergency could actually be guilty of being part of the plot against the governor of Helmand.

One would have to refuse to accept reality not to even imagine that doctors could possibly take sides with the people they are treating medically.

One would have to be deaf and blind to the world's problems not to admit that an organisation like Emergency could play host to people harbouring repressed violence behind the mask of doing good and smiling like pseudo-Buddhists who believe they have found the inner light.

Since I'm not a pacifist, and I try to keep my feet on the ground and have not yet found the kind of inner light that eliminates my critical faculties, I find many aspects of this situation - even the most embarrassing ones - plausible and comprehensible. Especially in the light of certain personal experiences.

Years ago a letter from "Doctors Without Borders" recounted how a member of the organisation working in Africa had contracted Aids through sleeping with a local member of staff. He told nobody about this, not even the colleague who replaced him and who, obviously, had an affair with the same woman and also contracted Aids. So much for humanitarian doctors, one might say. Some Islamic humanitarian organisations recruit volunteers for extremist movements and arms smuggling: so much for their humanitarianism, one might say.

Certain international 'development organisations' (so called) are manifestly under the orders of intelligence services or corporations devoted to the exploitation of people and risorses. So much for "development", one might say.

In other words, there would be nothing so strange about an Emergency doctor accepting half a million dollars to help terrorists. Considering what they get paid by their organisation, the price could make the risk seem worthwhile.

If anything, the strange thing would be the fact of someone who places so little value on human life offering so much money to a foreigner, and in a place where life has, objectively, practically no value.

The doubts grow when one then considers that such a fortune would be offered to the doctor in order to bring a couple of boxes inside the hospital and then leave them conspicuously in sight, so that they'd be immediately discovered: this sounds more like an operation run by "those in power" and secret services than by terrorists.

It wouldn't be all that strange for a doctor, even a pacifist doctor - having treated so many bodies maimed and mortified by the bombs of the West - to mentally flip out and become a terrorist. But then he wouldn't need to be paid. He do it for free, he'd be prepared to pay to get a chance to vent his frustration and sense of impotence.

It wouldn't even be particularly strange if the Emergency organisation knew nothing about the deviation of some of its members, and is therefore actually a victim of the plotters, and not their accomplice. Every organisation contains a few black sheep, and no humanitarian organisation should be accused and threatened if one or more of its members don't maintain their commitment or go out of their minds.

Nor is it strange that the organisation's founder passionately defends his people: whether he knows something or not.

If anything, the strange thing is that the first declaration made by Italy's Foreign Minister on this matter consisted of a condemnation of all kinds of terrorism: in practice resembling a kind of admission that Emergency is a terrorist organisation. Or that at least it could legitimately be suspected of being one.

And last of all, there would be nothing strange about prisoners in Afghanistan confessing. In that part of the world foreigners only survive if they confess, to everything and anything, and extremely quickly too. This saves face for the captors and saves the captive's lives. If prisoners want to play the hero or the martyr, they need to wait until they're safely back home before doing so.

These are all possibilities, and they need to be considered, regretfully and without cynicism or condescension, even though some people may be delighted and be willing to exploit them.

However, once one has considered all the possibilities, one has to move on and examine the facts. Whether one likes it or not, Emergency has performed wonders in Afghanistan. Its history bears witness to its credentials in terms of humanitarianism but also in terms of independence and equidistance from both parties to the conflict. Possibly certain dubious episodes in the past have been the result of excessive zeal or of enthusiasm for being in the spotlight, but the motivation behind them has always been genuinely humanitarian.

Long before this situation, I clearly said that Emergency would pay a heavy price for its "political" intervention in the Mastrogiacomo kidnapping affair. Now that time has come.

The annoyance Emergency causes to the international forces and the Afghan rulers every time it denounces humanitarian outrages is a concrete fact.

Another fact is that Emergency is a reference point for anyone in need, and consequently also for the so-called Taliban insurgents. It's a fact that Helmand is still a stronghold of the Pashtun rebels and that dismantling their movement must necessarily implicate any organisation that helps them, even if only in a humanitarian sense.

It's a fact that the British policy of winning Afghan hearts has failed and now, despite Obama's promises, killing has once again surged.

It's a fact that Afghanistan is currently the stage for a struggle between international organisations in search of justification for their failures and for the money they've spent, while Emergency has been outstanding in its successes and in the favour it has won with the Afghan people.

It's a fact that the province of Helmand, like others in Afghanistan, is run by professional politicians that change jobs in rotation every few years in order to make the maximum profit, and that survive purely thanks to keeping favour with the foreign troops.

The governor, Gulab Mangal - the supposed victim of this plot - lives in terror, his son is constantly threatened, and he himself has survived various real or apparent assassination attempts. The British, who have always chosen the governor of Helmand, are beginning to tire of protecting him without receiving any concrete benefit in exchange, and Emergency has certainly not helped them to control the province. These facts add up to the concrete possibility that Emergency has become a victim of some people's desire for revenge and other people's military strategy.

Instead of being bombed (a possibility that's not to be excluded sooner or later...accidentally, of course), the hospital must be delegitimized and its humanitarian function must lose its credibility.

From a military viewpoint, Emergency must stop being a witness and a reference point for the rebels. The Afghans must be made to realise that being medically treated there may lead to them being arrested, which for Afghans usually then leads to a trip to the cemetery.

As well as all this, the governor needs to regain clout and demonstrate to his supporters and to his British protectors that even the international organisations and the Italian allies are ganged up against him. Only thus can he hope to continue his highly profitable activities.

How all this can be achieved with one simple coup de théâtre is precisely what we've seen so far. A tip-off, the search of the hospital, a box of explosives, a pistol, two active and four inactive grenades, intelligence units recording everything on video, various Afghan soldiers and policemen and several British paratroopers who head straight for one room and there, among dozens of boxes, immediately go to the suspect ones.

Consequently the arrest of nine Afghans and three Italians, imprisonment and - perhaps - confession. Perfect, right out of a film-script: the plot a bit obvious, but still effective.

While admitting all kinds of possibilities, and even some degree of infiltration, these facts and this probable course of events are what make the hypothesis of a trap and an intimidation the most likely.

For this reason, for the organisation's pedigree and for all the admirable people who believe in its mission, today one must be on Emergency's side. Tomorrow, we shall see.

General Fabio Mini